Box-Office Preview: How Far Will 'Solo' Drop in Post-Memorial Day Weekend?

Movies


A trio of smaller films open opposite the ‘Star Wars’ spinoff and ‘Deadpool 2’ — Shailene Woodley’s lost-at-sea drama ‘Adrift,’ Johnny Knoxvilles’s comedy ‘Action Point’ and genre pic ‘Upgrade.’

May tentpoles Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 will easily dominate what’s expected to be a quiet post-Memorial Day box office.

All eyes will be on Solo to see how the tentpole fares in its second weekend following a lackluster debut domestically. From Disney and Lucasfilm, the standalone debuted to $84.4 million for the three-day Memorial Day weekend, and to $103 million for the four days.

Ryan Reynolds and 20th Century Fox’s Deadpool 2 heads into its third weekend with a domestic total of nearly $225 million (that’s through Tuesday) and more than $500 million globally.

Box-office observers expect Solo to gross north of $60 million for the weeked, while the Deadpool sequel is tipped to earn another $20 million-plus.

If tracking is correct, none of the the three smaller films opening nationwide this weekend will come close to matching Solo or Deadpool 2.

STX and Lakeshore’s romantic survival adventure, Adrift, could fare the best of the trio with a launch in the $10 million-$13 million range. The film stars Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin as two young lovers and veteran sailors who sail into one of the worst hurricanes in recent history. In the aftermath of the storm, Woodley’s character must use her smarts and strength to save them both when her boyfriend is left badly injured.

Johnny Knoxville returns to the big screen this weekend in Action Point, an R-rated ensemble comedy from Paramount that’s only expected to earn $4 million-$7 million in its domestic start.

Directed by Tim Kirkby, the $19 million film also stars Chris Pontius, Dan Bakkedahl, Matt Schulze, Eleanor Worthington-Cox, Johnny Pemberton, Brigette Lundy-Paine, Joshua Hoover, Conner McVicker and Eric Manaka. (Action Point is likewise counting on younger males.)

Knoxville stars as D.C., the crackpot owner of a low-rent, out-of-control amusement park where the rides are designed with minimum safety for maximum fun. Just as D.C.’s estranged teenage daughter Boogie comes to visit, a corporate mega-park opens nearby and jeopardizes the future of Action Point.

The third new nationwide offering is Upgrade, the latest offering from Blumhouse’s BH Tilt alongside Goalpost Pictures and Automatic Entertainment. Directed by Leigh Whannel, the R-rated action-thriller is tracking to open in the $3 million-$4 million range (it is likewise targeting younger men).

Upgrade, set in the near future, centers around a technophobe who is paralyzed in a freak mugging. Later, he’s seemingly cured when implanted with an experimental chip. Grey Trace, Betty Gabriel, Harrison Gilbertson, Simon Maiden and Benedict Hardie star.

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