Tony Awards: Predicting the Nominees Using Math


Twenty-four years after Tony Kushner made Tony history by becoming the first playwright to win back-to-back Best Play honors for the two parts of Angels in America, his seminal work about the AIDS crisis has a good chance to again win a Broadway award. Nathan Lane and Andrew Garfield, who headline the production, lead the way, but they’ll have to fend off Laurie Metcalf, Glenda Jackson and Alison Pill as Three Tall Women, Edward Albee’s play that won the Pulitzer for Drama in 1994, just one year after Angels in America did.

If there’s going to be a spoiler, it’s most likely Eugene O’Neill’s The Iceman Cometh. O’Neill has a 75 percent chance to earn his sixth nomination for Best Play Revival (one of the first five was also for The Iceman Cometh in 1999), putting him in third place behind William Shakespeare (9) and Arthur Miller (8).

The most likely final nominee is Travesties, a play about Zurich during World War I, thanks to its nominations from the Drama Desk, Drama League, and OCC.

The Tony voters had to make some hard choices this year; we’ll find out what they decided in just a few short hours.

Ben Zauzmer, who works as a baseball analyst for the Los Angeles Dodgers, uses data to write about awards shows for The Hollywood Reporter. His mathematical Oscar predictions went 20 for 21 this year. 


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